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Marine crude oil transport – global voyage losses

The Energy Institute (EI) HMC4A Marine Oil Transportation Database Committee has been collecting and
analysing worldwide oil shipping data for over 20 years and meets twice a year. The 2012 autumn
meeting was held in Houston in Committee members submit their voyage measurement data annually.
They receive a global analysis and confidential individual company reports.
The following member companies submitted data for 2012 – BP Oil International, CEPSA, Chevron,
Chinese Petroleum Corporation, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Marathon Petroleum, Petrobras,
Petrogal (GALP Energia), Phillips 66, PMI Pemex, Repsol, Saras, Shell, Statoil and Total. The main findings
from the global analysis are presented below.

Database development
The total number of voyages reported for 2012 increased slightly to just over 9,600. However, the
number of voyages reported with both bill of lading (BOL) and outturn data fell, with a number of
members undergoing systems changes.
The reported BOL volume totalled 5.52bn barrels, a fall of around 4% compared with 2011. The volume
of crude with complete data fell to 3.9bn barrels, as shown in Figure 1. The BP Statistical Review of
World Energy gives global crude seaborne trade for 2012 as 14.1bn barrels, up about 1.3% compared
with 2011. The database therefore includes almost 40% of the global volume at BOL and contains
complete load and discharge data for just under 30% of global volume.
Global losses
Losses have been falling consistently since 2001 and fell to a record low net standard volume (NSV) loss
of –0.161% in 2010 (by convention losses are given as negative). However, the 2011 figures show an
increased loss of –0.172% and this figure was repeated in 2012. It must be noted that losses include
apparent as well as physical losses. Apparent losses result from the combination of fixed and random
errors in the measurement systems used at load and discharge.
The mean NSV loss from the database from 1993 to 2012 is plotted in Figure 1. Global loss showed no
major change between 1995 and 2000. A significant increase in mean NSV loss to –0.21% occurred
between 2000 and 2001, but this has been more than reversed over recent years with the increase
noted in 2011 being the first significant increase since 2000/2001.
Gross or total calculated volume (TCV) loss fell between 1990 and 1994 but rose again to around –0.15%
in 2000, staying fairly constant up to 2007, while water losses continued to fall. Changes in TCV loss have
driven NSV losses since 2006 and it was a rise from –0.134% in 2010 to –0.149% in 2011 which led to the
increased NSV loss in 2011, repeated in 2012. Water loss fell slightly between 2010 and 2011 to partly
compensate.
TCV loss comprises any real losses due to evaporation plus any apparent losses due to systematic
measurement differences. Water loss represents any additional water reported at discharge compared
with that reported at load; ie an accounting loss in terms of oil quantity but not a real loss of either oil or
water.

New figures undermine OFT findings Sept 2013

New data from the UK government confirms that supermarkets (Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s and
Morrisons) now have a much higher share of the UK market for retail transport fuels than previously
admitted. The latest combined total for petrol and diesel sees an increase to 46.5% in 2012. This
compares with the official total of just 39% for 2011 quoted in a recent Deloitte study on the sector and
also 39% for 2012 stated in the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) report into UK fuel prices (see Petroleum
Review’s Retail Marketing Supplement in April).

The statistical data on retail fuel volumes since 2008 has recently been revised on the
Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) website, after gross reporting errors were uncovered
by officials, reports the Petrol Retailers Association (PRA). 5,000 forecourts have closed since 2000,
another 175 closed last year and the independent retailers are continuing to get massacred by the
aggressive discounting and below cost sales tactics by supermarkets. There was considerable
complacency evident in the Deloitte and OFT reports which assumed that supermarket’s volumes were
levelling off and so the market was steady. However, we warned government that the 2012 Christie
study* indicated that supermarkets are trying to open up to 50 new forecourts for each of the next four
years.’

The data revision indicates that the average supermarket forecourt sells 12mn l/y and
independents 2mn l/y. Thus, every newtoindustry opening by a supermarket could suck up the entire
fuel volume of six independent retailers in the local area and jeopardise the business of at least 10
existing forecourts every year if such expansion proceeded, notes the PRA. ‘This will be bad for
competition, bad for consumer choice, bad for jobs at local family firms and bad for rural communities.’

This rejigging of key market information underpins our members’ real concern that the UK’s
energy resilience for retail fuels is at stake. If this situation is allowed to continue, there will be an
inevitable acceleration in the number of site closures to more than 300 per year. Thus there will be a
severe worsening of supply resilience from fewer sites with low stockholdings.