• Home
  • Archive by category "OPEC"

OPEC Oil Production Figures Jan 2014

• The OPEC Reference Basket in November fell below $105/b for the first time since July. A key factor behind the decline in the crude oil prices was reduced refinery crude intake due to scheduled turnarounds, as well as dismal margins. All Basket component values saw losses in November, but at varying levels. Crude futures prices also declined in November for the second month in a row. High crude inventories and rising supply in the US weighed heavily on Nymex WTI. The positive outcome at the Iran-P5+1 talks in Geneva also impacted the market. The Basket began to improve at the end of the month and into December to stand at $107.72/b on 9 December.

crudeoil update entire year 2013

• World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains unchanged at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively.
The forecast for the major OECD economies assumes a continued recovery, leading to higher growth in 2014 at 1.9%, compared to 1.2% in the current year, both unchanged from the previous report. China’s recent stimulus efforts and rising exports confirm this year’s forecast of 7.8%; growth is expected to continue at this level in 2014. While recent indicators point at some improvement, the forecast for India remains at 4.7% for 2013 and at 5.6% in 2014. Most recent advances in the OECD and China confirm the on-going recovery in the global economy.
• World oil demand growth in 2013 has been left broadly unchanged at 0.9 mb/d, while the forecast for 2014 remains at 1.0 mb/d. The bulk of next year’s growth is expected to come from the non-OECD, which is seen increasing by 1.2 mb/d, while OECD demand is projected to contract by 0.2 mb/d, which represents an improvement from the current year. China’s demand growth in 2014 is expected at 0.3 mb/d, in line with growth in 2013. Demand growth in OECD Americas is expected at 0.1 mb/d, while OECD Asia Pacific consumption is projected to contract by 0.1 mb/d.

• Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2013, up slightly from the last report. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d. Output growth is expected to come mainly from the US, Canada, the Sudans, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Colombia, while oil supply from Norway, Syria, the UK, and Mexico is seen declining. In 2014, OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d over the current year to average 5.95 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.63 mb/d in November, a decrease of 193 tb/d from the previous month, according to secondary sources.
• Oil product markets remained relatively weak worldwide in November. The top of the barrel continued to show a poor performance, despite some positive signs of increasing seasonal demand for naphtha. However, tightening market sentiment fuelled by some refinery outages and run cuts helped to limit potential declines in margins in Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, falling US middle distillate inventories, amid increasing seasonal requirements and lower US crude prices, allowed US margins to show a healthy recovery.
• In the tanker market, spot freight rates for dirty vessels saw gains across various classes with VLCC rates encountering the strongest growth. VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot freight rates increased by 40%, 18%, and 5%, respectively, over the previous month. The improvements were driven by winter demand, higher Asian requirements, and increased delays in the Turkish straits. Clean tanker freight rates were mixed in November, with West of Suez freight rates increasing by 10%, while East of Suez freight rates remained weak, dropping by 9% from a month earlier.
• Preliminary data showed total OECD commercial oil stocks declined by 2.5 mb in October, indicating a deficit of around 10.1 mb compared to the five-year average. Crude inventories reached 26.4 mb above the seasonal norm, while products fell to 36.5 mb below the five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 58.5 days, 0.7 days more than the five-year average. Preliminary data for November shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 26.4 mb, but still indicated a surplus of 9.2 mb above the five-year average. Crude inventories indicated a surplus of 40.8 mb, while products showed deficit of 31.6 mb.
• Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report and 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2012 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 is also unchanged from the previous report at 29.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to 2013.

Latest OPEC oil production figures

• Crude oil output from OPEC fell to 30.45mn b/d in June 2013, down from 30.57mn b/d in May, as lower volumes from Libya and Iraq more than offset an increase from top producer Saudi Arabia.

• ‘What’s notable about this month’s figures is not the Libyan decline, because that was known since the start of June, but the way the Saudis stepped right in to fill that gap.

• ‘The Saudi role as swing producer becomes more significant every month, as the kingdom puts oil into the market when it’s needed, and takes it out when it’s not. It has been particularly aggressive in this role in recent months.’

• Libyan production, which had recovered to around 1.4mn b/d in May, plunged by 200,000 b/d in June amid continuing political unrest that has included protests at key oil fields across the country. Libyan oil output had fallen below 1mn b/d because of the protests and other technical issues.

• In mid-June, there had been a ‘massive’ decline in production at some of Libya’s major fields, among them Elephant, Sharara, Sarir and Messla. Security personnel have been protesting since 2 June at the Elephant field, which is operated by a joint venture between NOC and Italy’s Eni, demanding improved pay and conditions.

• Reduced exports took Iraqi output down by around 100,000 b/d to 3mn b/d. The northern pipeline system, which carries crude to Ceyhan on the Turkish Mediterranean, has been subject to repeated attacks by insurgents.
• Exports from Ceyhan were suspended in mid-June. Other smaller dips in output came from Algeria, Angola and Nigeria. The 1.88mn b/d estimate for Nigeria was the lowest since September 2009, when production was pegged at 1.85mn b/d. Nigeria is subject to frequent sabotage of oil installations and pipelines and is also seeing the US export market shrink dramatically.

• Usan normally produces between 90,000 b/d and 110,000 b/d. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia boosted output by 250,000 b/d to 9.65mn b/d, the highest volume since November 2012 when output was estimated at 9.82mn b/d. Saudi output typically climbs in summer to meet increased demand from domestic power stations for direct-burning crude. Saudi output was estimated at an average 10mn b/d during May, June, July and August 2012.

• There were smaller increases of 10,000 b/d each from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
The latest survey indicates OPEC is overproducing its official 30mn b/d ceiling, which has been in place since January 2012, by 450,000 b/d. Adherence to the ceiling, however, is informal as OPEC has not set individual country quotas. This effectively leaves the management of the market to Saudi Arabia, the only country with the ability to make significant adjustments to output.

• Meanwhile, according to OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report, the oil cartel expects demand for its crude to decline again, to 29.61mn b/d, in 2014, as rising oil supply from independent producers outpaces the predicted increase in global oil consumption.

• This represents a year-on-year drop of around 250,000 b/d after an anticipated fall of 420,000 b/d this year. The forecast call on OPEC crude for next year is well below current production, which OPEC states averaged 30.379mn b/d in June.