Despite some weakness in the first half of the year, the world economy continues to recover. Global GDP
growth in 2014 is now forecast at 3.1%, slightly higher than the estimated 2.9% for 2013. The US
experienced a surprisingly large contraction in economic activity in the first quarter due to severe winter
weather, leading to a downward revision in US GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.4% previously. However, with the
US economy expected to rebound and continued large monetary stimulus in the Euro-zone and Japan, the
OECD is seen growing by 1.7% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015.
China’s GDP is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2015 from 7.4% in the current year. India and other major
emerging economies are forecast to recover. This, in combination with the expected improvement in OECD
economies, leads to a global GDP growth forecast of 3.4% in 2015 (Graph 1). However, a number of
uncertainties remain, ranging from the consequences of monetary policies in the developed economies to
the threat of deflation in the Euro-zone, as well as the risk of geopolitical tensions and potential spillovers.
Despite some weakness in the first half of the year, the world economy continues to recover. Global GDP
growth in 2014 is now forecast at 3.1%, slightly higher than the estimated 2.9% for 2013. The US
experienced a surprisingly large contraction in economic activity in the first quarter due to severe winter
weather, leading to a downward revision in US GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.4% previously. However, with the
US economy expected to rebound and continued large monetary stimulus in the Euro-zone and Japan, the
OECD is seen growing by 1.7% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015.
China’s GDP is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2015 from 7.4% in the current year. India and other major
emerging economies are forecast to recover. This, in combination with the expected improvement in OECD
economies, leads to a global GDP growth forecast of 3.4% in 2015 (Graph 1). However, a number of
uncertainties remain, ranging from the consequences of monetary policies in the developed economies to
the threat of deflation in the Euro-zone, as well as the risk of geopolitical tensions and potential spillovers.